💼 Frontier Ideas ▸ finance-1-blended-capital-term-sheet-studio/VALIDATION.md
updated 2026-07-15

VALIDATION — 7-Day Kill-Test (<€50)

Question to answer: Will people in Joshua’s orbit engage — this month — at the two price points: a €5,000+ Structure Sprint (funds/foundations) or a €500 Deal Mechanics Memo (founders)? Or is “blended finance is confusing” a pain people only complain about, never buy their way out of?

The assignment target is €5,000+ in 30 days. Memo sales are pipeline and proof, not success. The test therefore tracks two funnels separately: Sprint conversations (the target path) and memo sales (the tripwire).

Total spend: €0–15 (Stripe free to set up; Tally free tier; only cost is fees on an actual sale). No ads. No new tools.

The test

Sell before polishing. Use only assets that exist after tonight: landing page + sample memo + one-pager, one LinkedIn post, the 15-DM roster, the intake form.

Day 1 (≈2h of Joshua’s time)

  1. Deploy index.html, sample-memo.html, one-pager.html to existing Cloudflare Pages infra under an existing domain path — no new accounts, no new domain.
  2. Create two Stripe payment links (Memo €500, Memo+Session €900) and wire the CTAs. Stand up the Tally intake form from intake-form.md. Sprint stays mailto → scoping call.
  3. Publish the LinkedIn anatomy post (rewritten draft in README → Morning Action 5). Pin it.

Days 1–3 (≈90 min total)

  1. Send the 15 warm DMs from dm-roster.md. Fund-side rows (1–10, Template A) go first — they are the €5k path. Founder-side rows (11–15, Template B) keep the memo funnel warm.

Days 3–7 (passive + replies)

  1. Answer every reply within 24h. Fund-side bite → offer a 30-min scoping call within 72h; zero free structuring on the call — scope, quote (€5,000–7,500 fixed, in writing, same day), stop. Founder-side bite → one clarifying question max, then “that’s exactly a memo; here’s the link.”
  2. Track in a simple note: post impressions, relevant comments/DMs, landing clicks, sample-memo views, Stripe checkouts, scoping calls booked, quotes issued, sales.

Thresholds (read on Day 7, no negotiating with yourself)

Signal by Day 7 Verdict
≥1 Sprint quote issued after a scoping call (a named vehicle, a real budget conversation) OR ≥1 paid memo + ≥1 Sprint scoping call booked GREEN — proceed. Weeks 2–3: close the Sprint. The 30-day €5k target is live.
0 quotes, but ≥3 qualified conversations (named live deal/vehicle + a real “how do I buy” question, either funnel) YELLOW — one more week. Founding-client lever: first Sprint at €5,000 flat for a testimonial; warmest memo lead at €350. If still 0 paid by Day 14: kill.
0 sales and <3 qualified conversations RED — kill or shelve. The audience nods but doesn’t buy. Write a 5-line post-mortem and move on.

Secondary signals (annotate, don’t override): - Post >10k impressions or >20 substantive comments → distribution works even if the offer needs repackaging. - Memos selling but zero fund-side interest → the tripwire works and the flagship doesn’t; re-aim outbound at foundations (mission-investing sleeves) before touching price. - Multiple “can you just intro me to a lawyer” → product may be the referral layer; note it, don’t pivot mid-test.

Rules of the test