cambium ▸ docs/CAMBIUM_PAM_PROPOSAL.md
updated 2026-04-03

Cambium + Pam: Infrastructure & Budget Proposal

Date: April 2, 2026 Author: Joshua Haynes


What This Covers

Infrastructure costs, time investment, and a budget for running Cambium and Pam — with room to scale from 3 deployments today to 15 over the next year.


What Is Cambium?

Cambium coordinates teams of AI agents. Think of it as an operating system for AI workers — not one chatbot answering questions, but multiple agents researching, analyzing, deciding, and acting together with safety checks throughout.

The design borrows from biology rather than corporate org charts:

The whole thing is built in TypeScript, stores everything in PostgreSQL, and has a visual dashboard (Loom) for monitoring.

Why build this instead of using LangChain or CrewAI?

Those tools treat agents like employees in a hierarchy — rigid, scripted, fragile. That works for simple tasks. It falls apart when an agent fails mid-workflow, when you need 15 isolated deployments sharing one server, or when you want the system to actually learn from its mistakes. Cambium handles all of that.


What Is Pam?

Pam (Prediction Arbitrage Markets) does two things: market intelligence and cross-venue arbitrage. It runs as a deployment on Cambium.

Market Intelligence

Pam watches the news and maps events to prediction markets on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange) and Polymarket (crypto-native). It scores how “eventful” a situation is — how much real evidence supports a given prediction — then evaluates trading opportunities across specialized strategies for politics, economics, legislation, and interest rates.

Every trade requires a human tapping “Approve” on Telegram. There is no autonomous trading.

Cross-Venue Arbitrage

When the same event is priced differently on Kalshi vs. Polymarket, that’s free money (minus fees and execution risk). Pam scans both venues, matches equivalent markets using semantic analysis, computes the spread, sizes positions using Kelly Criterion (capped at 8% of bankroll), and executes both sides atomically within 250–500ms.

It also catches intra-venue inconsistencies — like when YES + NO contracts on the same event don’t add up to 100%.

How Pam Uses Cambium

Different agents handle different jobs: signal discovery across both venues, strategy evaluation, market matching for arbitrage, human approval routing, and a research agent (“Ralph”) that runs backtests to optimize parameters in a sandbox. Cambium’s health layer watches API connectivity to both exchanges; the immune system flags anomalous market data; governance enforces the human-in-the-loop rule on every trade.

Safety


Current Deployments

Deployment What It Does Status
Obadiah AI chief of staff — daily briefs, task coordination. Eight specialist personas covering health, finance, innovation, business strategy, security, QA, marketing, and UX. Active development
Pam Prediction market intelligence + cross-venue arbitrage (Kalshi and Polymarket) Active
Community Health Agent Discord community governance — conflict prediction, health scoring, adaptive moderation, onboarding Alpha

The Community Health Agent

This is Cambium’s first commercial product. Standard Discord bots delete messages with banned words. The Community Health Agent is an intelligent governance layer:

Right now it’s running in report-only mode on Joshua’s Discord — observing and scoring, not acting. That’s deliberate: validate the models first, automate later.


Infrastructure

Three phases. The application code stays the same at each step — only the AI model endpoint changes.

Phase 1: Managed API (Now)

Run Cambium locally on a mid-range Linux box. Use cloud-hosted AI models.

Server: AMD Ryzen 7 7700X, 64 GB DDR5, 2 TB NVMe, Ubuntu. ~$1,100.

AI models: Together.ai and Groq serving Gemma 4 27B, with Claude as emergency fallback. Cambium’s provider system handles failover automatically.

Monthly Cost
AI model APIs $75 – $150
Electricity, DNS, services $25 – $30
Total $100 – $180

Phase 2: Self-Hosted Cloud GPU (Month 3–6)

Move inference to a RunPod RTX 4090 you control, running Ollama. Costs slightly more (~$150–175/mo) but gives you model version control and no rate limits.

Phase 3: Local GPU (Month 6–12)

Buy an RTX 4090 ($1,800), add RAM and a bigger power supply (~$300 more). Monthly costs drop to $70–130 — mostly electricity and a small Claude API bill for complex reasoning.

Cumulative hardware after Phase 3: ~$3,200.

If 15 concurrent deployments ever bottleneck on inference, a second GPU and CPU upgrade runs ~$6,000. Not needed initially.


Time Investment

How This Gets Built

One person (Joshua) working with AI coding assistants (Claude Code, Codex). The AI handles bulk code generation; Joshua handles architecture, design decisions, strategy, and review. Output rate is closer to a small team’s, but the cost is one person’s time.

Time Already Invested

Development started August 2025. With AI doing the heavy lifting on code generation, the actual hours at the keyboard are lower than the codebase size suggests:

System Hours Notes
Cambium (18 packages, ~26K LOC) ~200 – 280 Architecture, directing AI, reviewing output, testing
Pam (~8K LOC) ~80 – 120 Strategy design, parameter tuning, backtest validation
Obadiah (8 personas) ~30 – 50 Persona design, workflow architecture
Community Health Agent (alpha) ~20 – 30 Discord integration, health scoring prototype
Total ~330 – 480 hrs Since August 2025

Ongoing Commitment

Activity Hours/Week
Platform maintenance 3 – 4
Pam monitoring & trade approvals 2 – 3
Community Health Agent (alpha to beta) 6 – 8
Loom dashboard 2 – 3
New deployments 1 – 2
Total 14 – 20

What That Time Is Worth

Berlin market rates as opportunity cost:

Hourly Monthly (17 hrs/wk) Annual
Senior engineer €85 – €120 €5,780 – €8,160 €69,360 – €97,920
AI/ML specialist €120 – €180 €8,160 – €12,240 €97,920 – €146,880
Blended (80/20) €100 – €135 €6,800 – €9,180 €81,600 – €110,160

The AI assistant costs show up in the API line items. There’s no separate AI budget.


Total Budget

Team: 1 person + AI. No salaries, contractors, or overhead.

Year 1

Low High
Hardware (server + GPU) $3,000 $3,300
Operating (12 months) $1,200 $2,100
Hard costs $4,200 $5,400
Joshua’s time (opportunity cost) €81,600 €110,160
Total with time ~€85,800 ~€115,560

Year 2 (steady state, local inference)

Low High
Hardware $0 $500
Operating (12 months) $840 $2,060
Hard costs $840 $2,560
Joshua’s time €81,600 €110,160
Total with time ~€82,440 ~€112,720

Break-Even

Infrastructure breaks even at 25 communities on the $49/mo Growth tier. Time investment breaks even around 150–200 paying communities. At 1,000 communities, projected ARR is ~$445K at 85%+ gross margins.


Revenue

Community Health Agent (SaaS)

Phase When What Revenue
1 Month 1–3 Alpha to beta, first 10 customers ~$1K MRR
2 Month 3–6 Add impact reporting for DAOs ~$5K MRR
3 Month 6–12 DAO governance tooling ~$15–25K MRR
4 Month 12–24 Mental health community platform ~$50K+ MRR

Pricing: Free / $49 / $149 / $499 / Enterprise (custom).

Pam (Trading Returns)

Variable. Depends on market conditions and arbitrage opportunities between Kalshi and Polymarket. Structured as asymmetric risk: conservative position sizing caps downside, spread opportunities provide upside. Not modeled as predictable revenue.


Risks

Risk Mitigation
LLM costs spike Local inference by Phase 3 removes the dependency
Hardware failure PostgreSQL backups + Cambium’s checkpoint/recovery system
Gemma 4 not good enough for complex work Claude API fallback built in from day one
Time commitment too high Revenue from Community Health Agent funds the work; phased approach limits exposure
Prediction market regulation changes Human-in-the-loop only; Kalshi is CFTC-regulated
Competition Composting data flywheel + 26K LOC of hardened orchestration code create real switching costs

Technical Overview

Stack

Languages TypeScript (strict), Python
Runtime Node.js 22+
Database PostgreSQL 16, Drizzle ORM
Monorepo pnpm + Turborepo
Tests Vitest, pytest
UI Next.js 15, React 19, React Flow, Tailwind 4
AI models Gemma 4 (local/cloud), Claude (fallback)
Model server Ollama

Codebase

Cambium 18 packages, ~26,000 lines TypeScript
Pam ~8,000 lines Python
Tests 25 passing, 7 integration (need live LLM)
Specs 16 PRD documents

Local AI (Gemma 4)

Gemma 4 27B fits on a single RTX 4090 at 4-bit quantization (18 GB VRAM). Open weights, no licensing fees, commercial use allowed. Cambium already has a built-in Ollama adapter. A smaller 4B variant handles routine tasks cheaply. For the 20% of work that needs top-tier reasoning, Claude API fills the gap.